Iranian Delays And Russian Obstructions

The Iranians have offered to restart talks about their nuke program, an offer which being described as "vacuous" (UK) and as "diplomatic fog" (US). This describes the last two years of talks between Iran and the EU-3 (something the Charles Krauthammer goes into in his column today). While it appears the Europeans are finally getting sick of having Iran use them as butt monkeys, our strategic partners in Moscow are still trying to help Tehran, even after last week's diplomatic "victory" with the Russians agreeing to not block efforts to refer the Iranians to the UNSC (for more, go here).

The Russians, in spite of this, are still providing cover for Tehran, with FM Lavrov saying that a compromise offer, in which Iran would send uranium to Russia for enrichment, is still on the table. Why should this be reassuring, given that the security at my apartment building is better than that at Russian nuke facilities, is a bit of mystery. Lavrov also made it pretty clear that his country would not support any meaningful sanctions, saying "The question of sanctions against Iran puts the cart before the horse."

Even our EU buddies, finally realizing that they have been patsies and that if Iran goes nuclear, their cities are the ones immediately at risk, are still being faint hearted. Rather than press for an immediate meeting of the IAEA, they are calling for an "urgent" meeting...next month (2Feb06). Since Israeli intel seems to be pointing towards a March timeframe for uranium enrichment to commence, shouldn't this urgent meeting be a bit more...well, urgent? And, the British official who called the latest offer "vacuous" also said "We don't see this leading straight into sanctions. We want to build gradual sustained pressure over time. This is a long-term issue."

No, it is not "long-term"; not any longer. If we keep screwing around, Israel will pound Iran into the dirt. While not as overtly obstructionist as the Russians and Chinese, the EU just doesn't have the will to face up to Iran.

The ChiComs, the other main block on the UNSC, made noises yesterday too, with a foreign ministry drone saying "The Chinese side believes resolving the issue through peaceful diplomatic means is the best choice, benefiting all parties." With billions in energy contracts with Iran, the only party that Beijing is interested in is China. They probably don't care if Tehran gets the bomb, assuming it would only be used against the Israelis or the West, and would primarily be a deterrent weapon anyway. Which, would suit them fine, since it would keep the US out of Iran, which is shaping up to be a primary supplier of energy to China.

Short of massive sanctions - in this case "massive" meaning, no oil or natural gas going out of the country - or a full-scale military assault, there is little hope of stopping Iran from getting the bomb.

Tehran's representative to the IAEA made their goal clear;

...Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh, Iran's representative to the international nuclear agency in Vienna, said in a telephone interview from Vienna that Iran's decision to resume nuclear fuel research was "legal and irreversible."

He added: "We are ready to negotiate with the Europeans and the Russians. It is now their turn to understand us."

He called it unfair that Iran's scientists had not been able to conduct their nuclear research under the freeze, saying, "The philosophy of telling scientists not to think and research is contrary to human rights principles and the United Nations Charter." (New York Times)

I'll leave aside the irony of a country that beats women for riding bicycles citing "human rights principles." Instead, I'll just say that Soltaniyeh - and his masters in Tehran - have been clear and consistent: talks with the EU, the UN, with everyone, all have as their end goal a nuclear weapons armed Iran...sorry, an Iran with a peaceful nuclear power infrastructure.

We have allowed the Europeans to waste two valuable years. We are now allowing the Russians and Chinese to dangle a carrot of cooperation before us, giving Tehran more time to complete a nuclear weapon. If we do not act soon - whether militarily or through sanctions, up to and including, a blockade of the country - than Israel will act. And, that is the real reason for urgency. Israel will not allow a country that has vowed to wipe it off the map, possession of the weapons to do just that. Given the problem of fighting a long-term, long-range war, we could even see Israel having to use its own nuclear arsenal to disarm Iran. While not probable, it is possible. Even a conventional attack would cause a surge in regional instability and violence. And, given both the importance and volatility of the region, we cannot allow this to happen.

(Sources: BBC, New York Times)

technorati tags: iran, russia, nuclear